Ottoman Research Systems monitors 1,400+ distinct variables to construct a high-fidelity map of the Turkish and global economy. We move beyond surface-level reporting to isolate the structural drivers of fiscal health.
Perspective 01
"Precision in macroeconomics requires more than data; it requires a deep understanding of the historical friction between policy and performance."
Reliability Index of Our Integrated CPI Proxies
By aggregating real-time retail pricing data with traditional economic indicators, our models anticipate inflationary shifts weeks before official announcements.
Our research systems categorize data into four operational clusters. Each variable is weighted based on its historical correlation to Turkish market volatility and global fiscal cycles.
Essential for identifying the transition stages of the Turkish business cycle. We track these to calibrate long-term capital allocation strategies.
These indicators serve as the primary inputs for our interest rate forecasting models. We emphasize producer input costs as the earliest warning for consumer price adjustments.
Monitoring the vulnerability of the Lira through external financing requirements and central bank liquidity positions.
Labor market tightness provides the fundamental floor for domestic demand forecasts. We examine these metrics to understand the "sticky" elements of structural inflation.
Fig 1.1: Calibrating historical data lags against real-time market signals.
Economic data is inherently noisy. Ottoman Research Systems applies a proprietary filtering layer to all incoming economic indicators. We isolate transient seasonal effects and one-off policy shocks to find the underlying trend.
This process ensures that our macroeconomics models are not misled by temporary anomalies in trade balances or erratic monthly employment shifts.
Fig 1.2: High-frequency data ingestion suite at our Ankara facility.
We utilize automated scrapers to monitor private sector activity beyond official government statistics. This includes electricity consumption patterns and freight logistics volume—indicators that often lead official GDP figures by 30 to 45 days.
By cross-referencing public dossiers with these "shadow indicators," we provide a more robust and resilient outlook than traditional institutional reviews.
How fluctuating economic indicators directly impact fixed-income yields and equity valuations in emerging markets.
Stress-testing portfolios against extreme tail-events identified through our proprietary volatility tracking Index.
Forecasting the net effect of legislative shifts and central bank directives on private sector liquidity and growth.
Access a deep registry of variables and the models that interpret them. Our research helps decision-makers navigate the complexities of the 2026 economic landscape.
Ottoman Research Systems, Tunali Hilmi Cd. 160, Ankara.
All data tracking is performed in accordance with our Editorial Standards.
