Precision in Uncertainty: Our Systematic Engine
At Ottoman Research Systems, we move beyond simple trend extrapolation. Our forecasting models are built on a rigorous intersection of historical causality and real-time fiscal behavior.
The Synthesis Engine
Our primary forecasting models rely on a proprietary weighting system that balances traditional econometric theory with the volatility inherent in emerging markets. We do not view Turkey's economic landscape as an outlier, but as a complex system requiring bespoke structural VAR (Vector Autoregression) parameters.
By integrating over 40 distinct economic indicators—ranging from industrial electricity consumption to weighted average cost of funding—we produce a multi-layered view of what we define as the 'Macro Convergence Point.' Our goal is to filter noise from actual structural shifts.
Correlation Core
Our model achieved a 0.84 Pearson correlation coefficient against realized CPI trends in Q4 2025, outperforming standard consensus benchmarks by 12 points.
Real-Time Recursive Filtering
We utilize a recursive Bayesian framework that updates our **macroeconomics** assumptions every 24 hours. This allows our partners to pivot fiscal strategies before the market fully prices in new economic indicators.
Current Revision Status: Active (2026-02-25)
Framework Applicability Matrix
Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)
Ideally suited for long-horizon policy impact analysis where stability of structural parameters is assumed over a decade.
Proprietary 'Sultan' Neural VAR
Our flagship model tailored for high-frequency Turkish market data, emphasizing trade balance and currency elasticity.
Institutional Pedigree
Our forecasting models undergo quarterly peer-review cycles in accordance with our Editorial Standards. We do not hide our failures; we document every variance to refine the 2026 outlook.
Internal Audit
Every data point verified by 3-stage validation protocols.
Ready to integrate systemic clarity?
Our models are available via discrete institutional subscription or one-time strategic audits. For detailed technical specifications or custom parameter requests:
Tunali Hilmi Cd. 160, Ankara
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+90 312 471 7805